Released by the United States Embassy, India
The Importance of Asia
Much has been written in recent years about the coming Asian century. Here
is
one example, a recent judgment on the subject by an obscure Harvard professor.
I wrote the following in my book America's Asian Alliances just before I
reentered government in early 2001, "Asia, with over one-half of the world's
population, is an increasingly dangerous place. Big power competition in this
huge area is alive and well. Contrast Europe, where democracy and the market
economy reign, largely pacified west of the eastern Polish border. Although
residual problems remain in the Balkans, state-to-state conflict is nearly
unimaginable in the immediate future, and the next decade promises the greatest
peace and prosperity in the continent's history. An enormous accomplishment
by
transatlantic governments, and by the people of Europe themselves, this is one
of the most consequential geopolitical facts for the era ahead. By stark
contrast Asia, which has so little in common with the history, geopolitics,
and
security practices and institutions of Europe, has many alternative futures.
Some of these would be perilous."
Asia's century is now underway. In this new era, one of the key objectives
of
American grand strategy is to use US diplomatic, economic, and military power
and influence to help maintain a durable and robust geopolitical framework in
Asia, in which the United States, its Allies and friends can prosper in
freedom. Where better today to stress that point in Asia than in democratic
India. This goal is particularly salient because Asia is poised to become the
strategic center of gravity in international politics.
For the first time since the signing of the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648,
the
single largest concentration of international economic power will be found not
in Europe - not in the Americas - but in Asia. This, of course, has profound
global implications.
The return of Asia to center stage in the international system after almost
five hundred years is driven by at least three crucial factors:
* The long peace among the major Asian powers in the last quarter of the 20th
century, underpinned by the security presence of the United States in Asia,
created political conditions for economic prosperity;
* The success of the liberal international economic order permitted many
Asian states to increase their economic growth rates far beyond the global
historical norm; and,
* The presence of enlightened leadership in key Asian countries produced
national strategies focused on economic development, expanded trade, and
increased prosperity.
The Problems of Asian Security
The United States has a preeminent strategic objective to collaborate with
others, including India, to ensure that events in Asia proceed down this
positive path. However, Asia faces grave problems that could unravel the fabric
of its future peace and prosperity. Although the US will not face an Asian peer
competitor in the foreseeable future, regional powers are developing sufficient
capabilities to threaten American vital national interests, and those of its
friends and Allies.
Asia is an area that while enjoying growing economic prosperity, is susceptible
to acute instability. Along a broad arc of volatility that stretches from the
Middle East and Persian Gulf (consider Iraq) to Northeast Asia (consider North
Korea), the region contains a hazardous mix of rising and declining regional
influentials, prosperous and failing states, status quo and revisionist
nations, and responsible and rogue governments.
Asia hosts the most threatening sources of global terrorism. It contains the
most severe international territorial disputes, and non-democratic rivalries
over the right to rule. Many of its countries field large militaries and
possess the potential and/or ability to develop, acquire, use or export weapons
of mass destruction - witness especially the current dangerous cases of Iraq
and North Korea that are being urgently addressed by the international
community. And reckless governments in some Asian nations provide fertile
ground for non-state actors to engage in terrorism, and onward proliferation
of
WMD technologies.
Maintaining a stable Asia in these combustible circumstances represents a
complex and abiding strategic mission for India, the United States and all like
minded states.
The Transforming US-India Relationship in the Context of Asian Security
President Bush and Prime Minister Vajpayee recognized and acted upon this
strategic challenge and therefore gave a historic impulse to US-India
diplomatic collaboration, counter terrorism, counter proliferation, defense
and
military-to-military teamwork, intelligence exchange, and law enforcement.
Two years ago, under the 1998 US sanctions regime, the United States and India
seemed constantly at odds. Today, President Bush has this to say about India,
"The Administration sees India's potential to become one of the great
democratic powers of the twenty-first century and has worked hard to transform
our relationship accordingly." The President waived the 1998 sanctions
against
India, and drastically trimmed the long "Entity List" which barred
Americans
from doing business with certain Indian companies from over 150 Entities to
less than 20.
Two years ago, the American and Indian militaries conducted no joint
operations. Today, they have completed six major training exercises. Two years
ago, American and Indian policymakers did not address together the important
issues of cooperative high technology trade, civil space activity, and civilian
nuclear power. Today, all three of these subjects are under concentrated
bilateral discussion, and both governments are determined to make substantial
progress. Two years ago, American sanctions against India undermined bilateral
diplomatic cooperation on regional and global issues. All that has changed,
from Iraq, to Afghanistan, to Asia writ large.
President Bush and Prime Minister Vajpayee champion this powerful and positive
bilateral interaction with top down direction, reinforced by an unprecedented
stream of Washington policymakers who have traveled to India. The Prime
Minister has spoken of India and the United States as "natural allies."
He is
right. Since Sept 1, 2001, five members of the Bush Cabinet have come to India,
some more than once. Nearly 100 US official visitors to India at the rank of
Assistant Secretary of State or higher have reinforced their efforts.
In my view, close and cooperative relations between America and India will
endure over the long run most importantly because of the convergence of their
democratic values and vital national interests. Our democratic principles bind
us -- a common respect for individual freedom, the rule of law, the importance
of civil society, and peaceful state-to-state relations. With respect to
overlapping US-India vital national interests, my "Big Three" for
the next
decade and beyond are to promote peace and freedom in Asia, combat
international terrorism, and slow the spread of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD).
Managing Asian Security
Peace within Asia -- a peace that promotes freedom and prosperity - will be
advanced by the transformed US-India relationship. Within a fellowship of
democratic nations, the United States and India would benefit from an Asian
environment free from inter-state conflict --- including among the region's
great powers -- open to trade and commerce, and respectful of human rights and
personal freedoms. President Bush says it succinctly, "We seek a peaceful
region where no power, or coalition of powers, endangers the security or
freedom of other nations; where military force is not used to resolve political
disputes."
Achieving this paramount goal requires the United States particularly to
strengthen political, economic, and military-to-military relations with those
Asian states that share our democratic values and national interests. That
spells India. A strong US-India partnership contributes to the construction
of
a peaceful and prosperous Asia and binds the resources of the world's most
powerful and most populous democracies in support of freedom, political
moderation, and economic and technological development.
Even as the US and India together support peace, prosperity and liberty in
this
part of the world, Asia remains an area wracked by the cancer of international
terrorism. During the past decade, more familiar ethnic, nationalist, and
separatist terrorist groups have been joined by new organizations with
murderous ideological motivations. These newer terrorist organizations, which
attract recruits by perverting great religious traditions, embody a lethal
threat to both India and the United States. Their worldview propels them to
conduct deadly attacks to inflict mass, indiscriminate casualties among
innocents. Both the United States and India are principal victims of this new
and more dangerous kind of terrorism. If you visitors to India doubt this, take
a look at the bullet holes still evident at the Indian Parliament from the
December 13, 2001, terrorist attack on that incandescent symbol of Indian
democracy. Other nations may fade in the marathon war against terrorism. India
and the United States will be there together at the finish - when we win.
If promoting peace, prosperity and freedom in Asia, and ending international
terrorism are two important long-term objectives of a transformed US-Indian
relationship, the third and final strategic challenge underlying this radical
reform of our bilateral ties is to curtail the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction in Asia, and the means to deliver them. Today, Asia has eight
nations that either have nuclear weapons capabilities, or are trying to acquire
them. Nine countries have biological and chemical weapons or are attempting
to
obtain them. Eight nations have ballistic missiles with ranges exceeding 1,000
km. No other part of the globe has such a concentration of WMD nations and
capabilities, and these disturbing trends could worsen. As WMD programs have
become more advanced and more effective as they mature, some irresponsible
countries have become more aggressive in pursuing them.
Both India and the United States share a common vital national interest in
restraining the further proliferation of WMD, and their means of delivery. Both
countries face a significant risk within the next few years of confronting
either terrorists or rogue states armed with such WMD capabilities.
Thus, strong US-India relations over the long term are rooted not simply in
an
enduring commitment to democratic governance indispensable as that is, but also
in the fundamental congruence of US and Indian vital national interests.
Indeed, it is difficult for me to think easily of countries other than India
and the United States that currently face to the same striking degree all three
of these intense challenges simultaneously -- advancing Asian stability based
on democratic values; confronting the threat of international terror; and
slowing the further proliferation of WMD. This daunting trio will be an
encompassing foundation for US-India strategic cooperation for many years to
come.
The Strategic Economic Dimension of the US-India Relationship
"Why," you may ask, "does the Bush Administration care about
US-India economic
ties, and the future of the Indian economy?" After all, there are over
190
nations in the world. What is so special about India in this regard? The
President recently issued "The National Security Strategy for the United
States
of America," which sets forth our diplomatic and security approach to the
current openings and dangers within the international system, an approach based
on America's democratic values. This report, which bears President Bush's
personal stamp, describes India as one of the "great democratic powers
of the
21st century."
I now want to make a point that is important to my presentation of managing
the
opportunities and problems of Asian security. As I used to teach students in
my
course on strategy at Harvard University, national economic strength is a
prerequisite for sustained diplomatic influence and military muscle. The close
US-India partnership that I have just enumerated would be made more wide
reaching and successful by a fundamentally reformed and globalized Indian
economy. I openly admit, therefore, that there is a certain amount of American
self-interest as we hope for the best for India's economic performance in the
years ahead.
On the geopolitical side, an India that takes full advantage of its
extraordinary human capital to boost its economy would be a more effective
strategic collaborator with the US over the next decades, including in
promoting peace, stability and freedom in Asia. An India that enters into a
full fledged series of second generation domestic economic reforms would
inevitably play an increasingly influential role in international affairs
across the board, and that too would be beneficial for the United States.
Conclusion
President Bush vigorously promotes US-India strategic interaction because
a
powerful India is a critical member of the core group of liberal democracies
that will collaborate to strengthen Asian security in the decade ahead: to
bolster democracy and preserve a balance of power in Asia; to defeat
international terrorism; and to curb the spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
As I draw to a close, I am reminded of my former boss and not obscure Harvard
professor Henry Kissinger who observed in his book Diplomacy, that
"Intellectuals analyze the operations of international systems; statesman
build
them. And there is a vast difference between the perspective of an analyst and
that of a statesman. The analyst can choose which problem he wishes to study,
whereas the statesman's problems are imposed on him. The analyst can allot
whatever time is necessary to come to a clear conclusion; the overwhelming
challenge to a statesman is the pressure of time. The analyst runs no risk.
The
statesman is permitted only one guess; his mistakes are irretrievable. The
analyst has available to him all the facts; he will be judged by his
intellectual power. The statesman must act on assessments that cannot be proven
at the time he is making them; he will be judged by history on the basis of
how
wisely he managed the inevitable change, and above all, how well he preserves
the peace."
The transformation of the US-India relationship is in long term ascent
propelled by two such statesmen -- President Bush and Prime Minster Vajpayee.
Only a vision in January 2001, this strategic transformation is now a growing
reality. As Foreign Minister Sinha stressed in New Delhi last month, ties
between the United States and India are better today than at any time in a
half-century. Both Governments are determined to keep it that way-for their
own
sake and for an Asian security built on freedom, prosperity and peace.
Thank you for your attention.
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