Net Migration
The
Example of Forehoe
|
Begin Date |
TPop Begin |
End Date |
Pop End |
Tot Chg: |
% Chg |
Natural |
% Chg |
Total Change |
Tot % Chg |
Chg Mig |
Chg Mig |
% Chg |
% Chg |
Pop End |
|
|
|
|
1851 |
13565 |
1861 |
12818 |
-747 |
-5.51 |
1206 |
8.89 |
-1953 |
-14.40 |
-441 |
-178 |
-35.60 |
-15.01 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
1861 |
12818 |
1871 |
12308 |
-510 |
-3.98 |
1277 |
9.96 |
-1787 |
-13.94 |
-371 |
-264 |
-36.40 |
-23.49 |
94.5 |
|
|
|
|
1871 |
12308 |
1881 |
11971 |
-337 |
-2.74 |
1203 |
9.77 |
-1540 |
-12.51 |
-303 |
-140 |
-30.80 |
-15.08 |
90.7 |
|
|
|
|
1881 |
11971 |
1891 |
11988 |
17 |
0.14 |
1423 |
11.89 |
-1406 |
-11.75 |
-258 |
-104 |
-24.36 |
-11.13 |
88.2 |
|
|
|
|
1891 |
11988 |
1901 |
11329 |
-659 |
-5.50 |
939 |
7.83 |
-1598 |
-13.33 |
-288 |
-142 |
-28.85 |
-15.18 |
88.4 |
|
|
|
|
1901 |
11329 |
1911 |
11383 |
54 |
0.48 |
1052 |
9.29 |
-998 |
-8.81 |
-129 |
-54 |
-13.26 |
-6.18 |
83.5 |
|
|
|
|
1911 |
11383 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Natural Increase =
[Population at end date - Population at begin date] - Change due to Migration |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1. Strictly speaking, Forehoe differs from any of
the models in Table 2.4* because its population change is marked |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
|
both by sustained natural increase
AND by sustained rates of out migration. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
The extent of out
migration is typically greater than the natural increase, which |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
results in continuing
depopulation except for the very small increases during |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
the 1880s and first decade
of the 20th century. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. For 1851 to 1911, the patterns of importance are: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
a. A steady decline in
population, but at a pace that slows after 1861, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
especially in 1871-1901
period. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
b. Continuing and
substantial out migration. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
The rate of out migration
slows in the 1860s, 1870s, and 1880s, before |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
rising in the 1890s, and
then falling fairly sharply |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
in the first decade of the
20th century. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
c. Positive natural
increase, as births continue to outnumber deaths |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
by a substantial margin. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
The rate of natural
increase varies between a low of 7.83% to a |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
high of 11.89% in the
1880s. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
The population was
certainly reproducing itself. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
d. Young men (15-24 yrs)
left Forehoe in greater numbers than young women |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
of the same age. |
Except for the 1860s, when the differences
narrowed, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
the rate of outmigration for young men was
about |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
twice the rate of young women. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
*Table 2.4 in “Introduction to
Historical GIS.” http://www.mtholyoke.edu/courses/rschwart/rail/intro_hist_gis.htm
R.
Schwartz, 25 October 2005