"I
have hitherto sometimes spoken as if the variations, that are so common
and multiform with organic beings under domestication, and in a lesser
degree with those under nature, were due to chance. This, of course, is
a wholly incorrect expression, but it serves to acknowledge plainly our
ignorance of the cause of each particular variation."
--- Charles Darwin (1809-1882), The Origin of Species, Chapter
V
Despite all our efforts to simplify the world, we are confronted with
a complex reality that is in constant flux. As Heraclitus might say,
we can never step in the same overdetermined river twice. How, in
this context, can we make good decisions?
The purpose of statistics is to provide us with tools for drawing inferences
about the complex world we inhabit based on data about the past such that
we can make better decisions in the future. Statistics is not, by
any stretch of imagination, the road to Truth. Rather, statistics
is a way to use logical deduction to improve the odds that our decisions
will have successful outcomes.
In Economics 220 we learn how to use the tools of statistics
to draw conclusions that can guide decision-making. These tools are
commonly used by many economists and, therefore, are essential aspects
of the knowledge of any economics major. We will learn to use and
understand descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, and regression analysis.
Most of the statistical techniques presented in the course may be applied
using manual calculations. However, it is recommended that students
use Microsoft Excel and/or Minitab for calculating statistical
variables. Note that it is the responsibility of the student
to familiarize herself with these software packages, although detailed
instructions are available in the primary course textbook.
By the end of the course, each student should have a good working knowledge
of the basic tools used in statistical work, which tools are appropriate
to specific problems, and be able to move forward with applying these tools
in economics. For those students who want to construct a senior thesis
that makes use of statistics, a second course in econometrics is recommended.
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