Monday, July 14, 2003

United States: MTCR Could Hinder Missile Defense Cooperation
Global Security News Wire

The Missile Technology Control Regime, which seeks to prevent ballistic missile proliferation by establishing common export control laws among members, could hinder the Bush administration’s plans to enlist allies to help develop missile defense systems, Defense News reported today (see GSN, June 2).

The MTCR’s consequences on missile defense cooperation are illustrated by a planned set of tests next year for the U.S.-Israeli Arrow missile interceptor. To conduct those tests, Israel plans to send an Arrow system and some spare missiles to a U.S. facility, according to Defense News. Under a strict interpretation of the MTCR, however, those spare interceptors could not be returned to Israel.

After considering several options, U.S. and Israeli officials determined that as long as Israeli officials maintained possession of the interceptors at all times, they could be returned without violating the regime, Defense News reported.

To prevent further difficult case-by-case reviews, the Bush administration is reviewing the MTCR and other export-control regulations, with recommendations on changes expected by the summer, according to a senior Bush administration official. A senior Bush administration official said the review would probably not recommend outright MTCR rule changes but rather would seek more moderate measures that could applied without reviewing each case individually.

The “MTCR is not, should not be, and is not intended to be a restraint on missile defense,” the official said. “It is intended to restrict trade in ballistic missile technology, so it has a complementary role to missile defense. Both seek to do the same thing in different ways,” the official said.

A U.S. industry official said that continued case-by-case reviews could lead to creative interpretations of the MTCR, which would help weaken the entire regime. Case-by-case reviews could also delay cooperation, the official said.

“On each and every occasion that some form of cooperation is proposed, proponents will line up their arguments and opponents will be energized by having another opportunity to draw the line on the primacy of the MTCR over missile defense cooperation,” the industry official said. “In some cases, cooperation will be denied. In others, we will see cooperation reduced,” the official added.

Opponents of outright changes to U.S. export control regulations, however, have warned against abolishing the MTCR, which could lead to increased ballistic missile proliferation

“This logic argues that the MTCR doesn’t work very well and that we should simply give up on it, but this (same logic) is not applied to missile defense technology itself,” said Ivan Oelrich, director of the Strategic Security Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “Even the most ardent supporters (of missile defense) admit the system might not work but that we should try anyway, yet they do not feel the same about the MTCR,” he said (Svitak/Ratnam, Defense News, July 14).