Instructor: Tim Chumley
Office: Clapp 404b
Phone: 5382299
email: tchumley
Office Hours: Mondays 9:0010:00, Tuesdays 1:00–2:00, Wednesdays 3:00–4:00, Thursdays 4:00–5:00, and by appointment
Textbook: Probability with Applications and R, by Robert P. Dobrow, ISBN: 9781118241257;
available as a free etext;
available on library reserve under QA276.45.R3 D63 2014
Announcements will be posted here throughout the semester.
Dec 7: We didn’t get to conditional densities (section 8.1), but here are some lecture notes and a worksheet if you’re interested.
Oct 15: Like I mentioned in class, the average score on the exam was an 88%, the median was 90%, and they went well overall. I am happy to talk over questions oneonone with everyone, whether it’s about some technical details, grading decisions, or anything else.
Here are some comments about revisions. If you lost half or more points on a problem, you can earn back some credit by doing the following:
Please finish steps 1 and 2 by next Monday and step 3 by the following Wednesday. I also want the process to be clear and fair for everyone. Students who have the chance to do revisions won’t end up with higher grades than those who don’t, but I want everyone to be aware of the policy.
Oct 14: For this week, Faryal’s evening help will be in Reese 307 on Tuesday from 7 to 9 pm.
Sep 21: Please complete the following online assignment before class on Monday, September 24.
Sep 17: There were more great questions this week. I’m posting some responses here and will also discuss some in class.
Sep 14: Two announcements:
Sep 13: Please fill out the evening help availability form.
Sep 12: You’ve asked great questions in the online assignment over the weekend! I’m posting some responses here.
Sep 8: A few announcements:
Check the syllabus for all the important class policies (grades, attendance, etc.).
There will be weekly homework assignments throughout the semester to be turned in, as well as suggested problems to be considered as additional practice.
Assignment  Due 

Homework 0  Sep 7 
Homework 1 (solutions)  Sep 12 
Homework 2 (solutions)  Sep 19 
Homework 3 (solutions)  Sep 26 
Homework 4 (solutions)  Oct 3 
Homework 5 (solutions)  Oct 17 
Homework 6 (solutions)  Oct 24 
Homework 7 (solutions)  Oct 31 
Homework 8 (solutions)  Nov 7 
Homework 9 (solutions)  Nov 19 
Homework 10 (solutions)  Nov 28 
Homework 11 (solutions)  Dec 5 
There will be a few quizzes during the semester. There will be some short (510 minute) selfcheck quizzes on Mondays with straightforward questions (for example, stating a definition). They are written to make sure you’re comfortable with the basics. These will be counted toward the participation part of your grade. There will be some longer (1520 minutes) quizzes on Fridays with problems similar to homework. These are intended to break up the material between exams and get everyone studying. The quizzes will be announced below with some advance notice.
Quiz  Date  Material  Solutions 

Quiz 1  Sep 14  1.1  1.6  (pdf) 
Quiz 2  Sep 28  1.7, Ch. 2  (pdf) 
Quiz 3  Oct 5  Ch. 3, 4.1  4.2  (pdf) 
Quiz 4  Oct 26  5.1, 5.2, 6.1, 6.2  (pdf) 
Quiz 5  Nov 2  6.4, 6.5, 6.7  (pdf) 
Quiz 6  Nov 9  6.7, 6.8, 6.10  (pdf) 
Quiz 7  Nov 30  9.1  9.4  (pdf) 
Quiz 8  Dec 10  9.5, 4.8, 8.3  (pdf) 
There will be three exams. The dates for the two midterms are subject to change slightly:
Exam  Date  Time and Location  Material  Study material 

Exam 1  Oct 12  in class  1.1  4.6  review guide (solutions) 
Exam 2  Nov 16  in class  5.1  7.1  review guide (solutions) 
Final  Dec 14  18  selfscheduled  cumulative  review guide (solutions) 
Our plan is to cover most of chapters 14, 6, and parts of chapters 5, 7, 8, and 9 in the textbook. Below is a rough outline of what is to be covered week by week through the semester. Please check back regularly for precise details on what is covered, as well as postings of inclass worksheets and other activities. Also note that the days of the week under Sections in the table below provide links to class notes.
Week  Sections  Inclass activities  Problems 

Sep 3 – Sep 7  Wednesday: 1.1  1.4 Friday: 1.4, RStudio introduction 
First day worksheet Introduction to R, Sets and probability functions 
1.21, 1.22, 1.25 1.26, 1.33 
Sep 10 – Sep 14  Monday: 1.5, 1.6 Wednesday: 1.7, 1.8 Friday: 1.10 
Counting Problem solving techniques Intro to simulation 
1.14, 1.15, 1.16 1.17, 1.29, 1.30, 1.39, 1.40 1.6, 1.24, 1.35, 1.36 
Sep 17 – Sep 21  Monday: 2.1, 2.3 Wednesday: 2.4, 2.5 Friday: 3.4 
Conditional probability Law of total probability, Bayes’ rule Counting subsets 
2.8, 2.9, 2.13 2.18, 2.23, 2.24, 2.25, 2.26, 2.27 3.12a, 3.14, 3.18 
Sep 24 – Sep 28  Monday: 3.1  3.3, 3.5 Wednesday: 3.5, 3.7 Friday: 3.7, 4.1 
Binomial distribution More on binomial distribution Poisson distribution 
3.7, 3.9, 3.21 3.22, 3.24a, 3.28 3.31, 3.33, 3.36 
Oct 1 – Oct 5  Monday: 4.1, 4.2 Wednesday: 4.3, 4.5 Friday: 4.4, 4.6 
Expectation Joint distributions Variance 
4.1, 4.4, 4.8 4.11, 4.12, 4.17, 4.19 4.25, 4.27, 4.29 
Oct 8 – Oct 12  Monday: break Wednesday: review Friday: exam 

Oct 15 – Oct 19  Monday: 5.1, 5.2 Wednesday: 6.1, 6.2 Friday: LEAP (no class) 
Negative binomial distribution Probability density functions 
5.1, 5.4, 5.11 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 
Oct 22 – Oct 26  Monday: 6.2, 6.4 Wednesday: 6.3, 6.5 Friday: multivariable calc review 
CDF, expectation Uniform, exponential distributions Iterated integrals (solutions) 
6.5, 6.6, 6.11 6.12, 6.14, 6.17, 6.18, 6.19 
Oct 29 – Nov 2  Monday: 6.7 Wednesday: 6.7, 6.8 Friday: 6.10 
Joint densities Marginal densities, independence (solutions) Min, max of independent random variables 
6.30, 6.31, 6.32 6.34, 6.38, 6.51 6.41, 6.42, 6.52 
Nov 5 – Nov 9  Monday: 7.1 Wednesday: 7.1 Friday: 9.1  9.3 
Normal distribution Sums of normal random variables R code 
7.1, 7.2, 7.3 7.4, 7.5, 7.6 7.10, 7.11, 7.12 
Nov 12 – Nov 16  Monday: 9.3, 9.4 Wednesday: review Friday: exam 
Monte Carlo integration Extra review (solutions) 
9.9, 9.10, 9.11 
Nov 19 – Nov 22  Monday: 9.4, 9.5 Wednesday: break Friday: break 
Central limit theorem  
Nov 26 – Nov 30  Monday: 9.5 Wednesday: 9.5 Friday: 4.8 
Moment generating functions (solution) Continuity theorem Discrete conditional distributions 

Dec 3 – Dec 7  Monday: 8.3 Wednesday: homework discussion Friday: 8.3 
Conditional expectation Review problems (solutions) 

Dec 10 – Dec 14  Monday: wrap up Wednesday: reading day Friday: exam period begins 
Extra review (solutions) 
Here’s a few ways to get help: