**Instructor**: Tim Chumley

**Office**: Clapp 404b

**Phone**: 538-2299

**e-mail**: tchumley

**Office Hours**: Mondays 9:00-10:00, Tuesdays 1:00–2:00, Wednesdays 3:00–4:00, Thursdays 4:00–5:00, and by appointment

**Textbook**: *Probability with Applications and R*, by Robert P. Dobrow, ISBN: 978-1118241257;

available as a free e-text;

available on library reserve under QA276.45.R3 D63 2014

Announcements will be posted here throughout the semester.

**Oct 15**: Like I mentioned in class, the average score on the exam was an 88%, the median was 90%, and they went well overall. I am happy to talk over questions one-on-one with everyone, whether it’s about some technical details, grading decisions, or anything else.

Here are some comments about revisions. If you lost half or more points on a problem, you can earn back some credit by doing the following:

- Try to redo the problem on your own or with my help.
- Write a sentence or two explaining what went wrong the first time (bad interpretation, didn’t know a theorem, etc).
- Come see me after 1 and 2 and then we can talk and I’ll give another problem like it to check if the concept has been learned.

Please finish steps 1 and 2 by next Monday and step 3 by the following Wednesday. I also want the process to be clear and fair for everyone. Students who have the chance to do revisions won’t end up with higher grades than those who don’t, but I want everyone to be aware of the policy.

**Oct 14**: For this week, Faryal’s evening help will be in Reese 307 on Tuesday from 7 to 9 pm.

**Sep 21**: Please complete the following online assignment before class on Monday, September 24.

**Sep 17**: There were more great questions this week. I’m posting some responses here and will also discuss some in class.

**Sep 14**: Two announcements:

- It turns out that for an overwhelming majority of the class, Sundays work much better for evening help, so we’ll be moving our sessions to
**Sundays**, 7-9pm in**Clapp 401**. Thanks for replying to the survey yesterday! - Please complete the following online assignment before class on Monday, September 17.

**Sep 13**: Please fill out the evening help availability form.

**Sep 12**: You’ve asked great questions in the online assignment over the weekend! I’m posting some responses here.

**Sep 8**: A few announcements:

- I’ve made a Google Group for our class. Please make sure you join in order to receive emails from me with important announcements.
- Please complete the following online assignment before class on Monday, September 10.

Check the syllabus for all the important class policies (grades, attendance, etc.).

There will be weekly homework assignments throughout the semester to be turned in, as well as suggested problems to be considered as additional practice.

**Written assignments**. A selection of problems taken from the textbook or other sources will be assigned to be due**Wednesdays in class**.- These assignments are given so that you can practice writing mathematics and receive feedback on your progress.
- If you would like feedback on a particular steps in a problem, then you can indicate this on your assignment.

- Each problem will be given a score out of 5. A score of 1 will be given to indicate that to stay on track you should get help from your instructor.
- Please read these guidelines for writing up your homework solutions.

**Suggested problems**. The book has a good variety of problems, both in terms of content and difficulty level. As you study throughout the semester, you might consider browsing and trying the problems at the end of the chapter for extra practice. I’ll always be happy to help over email or in office hours if you’re stuck.**Collaboration**. I want you to work together on the written homework; the process of explaining your ideas to one another really helps in learning math. However, you must write up the problems on your own, listing the people with whom you worked on the problems. Please acknowledge any source of help, including classmates or outside texts, by writing “help from …” at the top of your assignment. Also, please only write what you understand so that I know where to help.

Assignment | Due |
---|---|

Homework 0 | Sep 7 |

Homework 1 (solutions) | Sep 12 |

Homework 2 (solutions) | Sep 19 |

Homework 3 (solutions) | Sep 26 |

Homework 4 (solutions) | Oct 3 |

Homework 5 (solutions) | Oct 17 |

Homework 6 | Oct 24 |

There will be a few quizzes during the semester. There will be some short (5-10 minute) self-check quizzes on **Mondays** with straightforward questions (for example, stating a definition). They are written to make sure you’re comfortable with the basics. These will be counted toward the participation part of your grade. There will be some longer (15-20 minutes) quizzes on **Fridays** with problems similar to homework. These are intended to break up the material between exams and get everyone studying. The quizzes will be announced below with some advance notice.

Quiz | Date | Material | Solutions |
---|---|---|---|

Quiz 1 | Sep 14 | 1.1 - 1.6 | (pdf) |

Quiz 2 | Sep 28 | 1.7, Ch. 2 | (pdf) |

Quiz 3 | Oct 5 | Ch. 3, 4.1 - 4.2 | (pdf) |

Quiz 4 | Oct 26 | 5.1, 5.2, 6.1, 6.2 |

There will be three exams. The dates for the two mid-terms are subject to change slightly:

Exam | Date | Time and Location | Material | Study material |
---|---|---|---|---|

Exam 1 | Oct 12 | in class | 1.1 - 4.6 | review guide (solutions) |

Exam 2 | Nov 16 | in class, take home | ||

Final | Dec 14 - 18 | self-scheduled |

Our plan is to cover most of chapters 1-4, 6, and parts of chapters 5, 7, 8, and 9 in the textbook. Below is a rough outline of what is to be covered week by week through the semester. Please check back regularly for precise details on what is covered, as well as postings of in-class worksheets and other activities. Also note that the days of the week under Sections in the table below provide links to class notes.

Week | Sections | In-class activities | Problems |
---|---|---|---|

Sep 3 – Sep 7 | Wednesday: 1.1 - 1.4 Friday: 1.4, RStudio introduction |
First day worksheet Introduction to R, Sets and probability functions |
1.21, 1.22, 1.25 1.26, 1.33 |

Sep 10 – Sep 14 | Monday: 1.5, 1.6 Wednesday: 1.7, 1.8 Friday: 1.10 |
Counting Problem solving techniques Intro to simulation |
1.14, 1.15, 1.16 1.17, 1.29, 1.30, 1.39, 1.40 1.6, 1.24, 1.35, 1.36 |

Sep 17 – Sep 21 | Monday: 2.1, 2.3 Wednesday: 2.4, 2.5 Friday: 3.4 |
Conditional probability Law of total probability, Bayes’ rule Counting subsets |
2.8, 2.9, 2.13 2.18, 2.23, 2.24, 2.25, 2.26, 2.27 3.12a, 3.14, 3.18 |

Sep 24 – Sep 28 | Monday: 3.1 - 3.3, 3.5 Wednesday: 3.5, 3.7 Friday: 3.7, 4.1 |
Binomial distribution More on binomial distribution Poisson distribution |
3.7, 3.9, 3.21 3.22, 3.24a, 3.28 3.31, 3.33, 3.36 |

Oct 1 – Oct 5 | Monday: 4.1, 4.2 Wednesday: 4.3, 4.5 Friday: 4.4, 4.6 |
Expectation Joint distributions Variance |
4.1, 4.4, 4.8 4.11, 4.12, 4.17, 4.19 4.25, 4.27, 4.29 |

Oct 8 – Oct 12 | Monday: break Wednesday: review Friday: exam |
||

Oct 15 – Oct 19 | Monday: 5.1, 5.2 Wednesday: 6.1, 6.2 Friday: LEAP (no class) |
Negative binomial distribution Probability density functions |
5.1, 5.4, 5.11 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 |

Oct 22 – Oct 26 | Monday: 6.2, 6.4 Wednesday: 6.3, 6.5 Friday: TBA |
CDF, expectation | 6.5, 6.6, 6.11 |

Oct 29 – Nov 2 | Chapter 6 | ||

Nov 5 – Nov 9 | Chapter 6, 7 | ||

Nov 12 – Nov 16 | Monday: Chapter 7 Wednesday: review Friday: exam |
||

Nov 19 – Nov 22 | Monday: TBA Wednesday: break Friday: break |
||

Nov 26 – Nov 30 | Chapter 8 | ||

Dec 3 – Dec 7 | Chapter 9 | ||

Dec 10 – Dec 14 | Monday: wrap up Wednesday: reading day Friday: exam period begins |

Here’s a few ways to get help:

**Office hours**(listed at the top of this page). These are times I hold on my schedule to be available for students. I like to use these times as open drop in sessions where there may be multiple students getting help simultaneously, but it’s expected that you come with specific questions about notes, homework problems, or the text that you have thought about already. If you need to schedule a time to meet with me one-on-one, either to discuss something private or because you can’t make my office hours, please send me an email with times that you are available to meet, and I will find a time that works for both of us.**Evening TA help**. A student TA will hold office hours for the class one night a week in Clapp. These hours will be an opportunity for you to ask questions on homework and class material. You should also see this as a place where you can find classmates to work with on homework as a group.**Faryal Usman**is the official TA for our section. She will hold evening help on**Sundays, 7:00 – 9:00 pm in Clapp 401**.**Study groups**. I strongly encourage you to form small groups and work together on problems. My advice though is to try problems by yourself before discussing them. We have several spaces on the fourth floor of Clapp where students can work together for extended periods of time.

- Our textbook has a useful collection of R scripts available here; contained there are all the R code snippets you’ll notice interspersed in the text.